Thursday, April 07, 2005

Estimating.

The point of an estimate number, is obvious. It is a guess on the amount of SOMETHING.

Sometimes estimates are wrong, think about that time that you were given an ESTIMATE on how much something would cost... it ended up being more didn't it?

Or sometimes, when you are promised something with an estimate number... it usually ends up being less... it's a theory and practice all in one.

Never though, believe the estimate to mean "This is how many...."

For example... the Marches... where an estimate is given BEFOREHAND.... the number is usually not true. Especially if it is in the name of the event.

Now... let us take the current example of estimation. The Pilgrimage to Rome. The two places that you should listen to estimates from are the Vatican and the Italian/Roman authorities. Sure they could have an agenda and be wrong, but it's an estimate remember.

Now, when you have the same people giving the same numbers (within a short time frame) the number should be the same. Sure day to day, it might change based on observation and data, but for the most part it should stay within some sort of pattern, flow, or relative size.

Analysis Below....

Let us see if we can detect a pattern...

CBS/AP Report (4-4) 2mil.. ok... 2 days after the death, Ill accept this
BBS NEWS REPORT (4-4) Hundreds of Thousands? As in not millions? Hmmm... the 18k an hour also only puts about 432k people in a 24 hr period past the Pope... seems a lot lower than the Million that other sources have reported.
CNN (4-7) Ok I know things change.. but in 3 days.. they found 3 million more people coming to ROME?

Here is the point. Sure its hard to guess how many people are coming...I'll grant that. What is disappointing is that it's obvious some are not willing to talk about how EXTRAORDINARY this whole situation is. It's the POPE, people are religious, this man changed the face of history.

Just give the numbers... don't be afraid.. it may sound like alot... because it IS!
This is the most momentous social/traditional event in the modern era. God Rest Reagan, but it even surpasses his funeral. As it should. Don't play games with numbers... if you aren't sure... use MILLIONS... not hundreds of thousands, or a low ball number.

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